Publications
The pilot project LOKI-Pandemics is a research project of the Helmholtz Association. Information about the platform and its implementation is shared via publicly available publications and scientific/technical conferences. Here you will find all publications about the project and the web application ESID.
All models will be developed under a permissive open source license and published within our simulation backend MEmilio (https://github.com/DLR-SC/memilio).
Submitted
[Translate to English:] Jonas Gilg, Johann Fredrik Jadebeck, Mariama Jaiteh, David Kerkmann, Niklas Medinger, Shahbaz Memon, Anna Wendler, Moritz Zeumer, Henrik Zunker, Maximilian Betz, Ralf Hannemann-Tamas, Jonas Immanuel Heinicke, Julian Litz, Achim Basermann, Cas Cremers, Manuel Dahmen, Andreas Gerndt, Jens Henrik Göbbert, Björn Hagemeier, Carolina J. Klett-Tammen, Berit Lange, Katharina Nöh, Sarah Strassburger, Michael Meyer-Hermann, Martin J. Kühn A full software stack for epidemic disease management: Unlocking the joint potential of software technology and supercomputing (2026). Preprint
J. Bicker, C. Gerstein, D. Kerkmann, S. Korf, R. Schmieding, A. Wendler, H. Zunker, D. Abele, M. Betz, K. Nguyen, L. Plötzke, K. Volmer, A. Schmidt, N. Waßmuth, P. Lenz, D. Richter, H. Tritzschak, R. Hannemann-Tamas, J. Litz, P. Johannssen, M. Borges, A. Jungklaus, M. Heger, A. Lange, E. Kluth, K. Rack, V. Wieland, J. Arruda, S. Binder, M. Klitz, M. Siggel, M. Dahmen, A. Basermann, M. Meyer-Hermann, J. Hasenauer M. J. Kühn MEmilio -- A high performance Modular EpideMIcs simuLatIOn software for multi-scale and comparative simulations of infectious disease dynamics (2026). Preprint
V. Wieland, N. Wassmuth, L. Contento, M. Kühn, M. Kühn, J. Hasenauer Assessment of Simulation-based Inference Methods for Stochastic Compartmental Models (2025). Preprint
R. Kerkouche, H. Zunker, M. Fritz, M. J. Kühn Differentially private federated learning for localized control of infectious disease dynamics (2025). Preprint
J. Bicker, N. Tomza, K. Wallrafen-Sam, N. Schmid, A. F. Hofmann, S. Korf, A. Schengen, J. Javanmardi, A. Wieser, M. J. Kühn, J. Hasenauer Coupled Epidemiological and Wastewater Modeling at the Urban Scale: A Case Study for Munich (2025). Preprint
2026
[Translate to English:] S. Korf, S. J. Wagner, G. Köster, M. J. Kühn On the Effect of Missing Transmission Chain Information in Agent-Based Models: Outcomes of Superspreading Events and Workplace Transmission (2025). Preprint https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118179
A. Schmidt, H. Zunker, A. Heinlein, M. J. Kühn Graph neural network surrogates to leverage mechanistic expert knowledge towards reliable and immediate pandemic response. Scientific Reports 16: 6361 (2026). Preprint https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-39431-5
L. Plötzke, A. Wendler, R. Schmieding, M. J. Kühn Revisiting the Linear Chain Trick in epidemiological models: Implications of underlying assumptions for numerical solutions. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 239, pp. 823-844 (2026) Preprint https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2025.07.045
A. Wendler, L. Plötzke, H. Tritzschak, M. J. Kühn A nonstandard numerical scheme for a novel SECIR integro-differential equation-based model allowing nonexponentially distributed stay times. Applied Mathematics and Computation 509, 129636 (2026) Preprint https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2025.129636
2025
[Translate to English:] H. Zunker, P. Dönges, P. Lenz, S. Contreras, M. J. Kühn Risk-mediated dynamic regulation of effective contacts de-synchronizes outbreaks in metapopulation epidemic models. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 199(2), 116782 (2025). Preprint https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116782
N. Schmid, J. Bicker, A. F. Hofmann, K. Wallrafen-Sam, D. Kerkmann, A. Wieser, M. J. Kühn, J. Hasenauer Integrative Modeling of the Spread of Serious Infectious Diseases and Corresponding Wastewater Dynamics. Epidemics 51, 100836 (2025). Preprint Link
D. Kerkmann, S. Korf, K. Nguyen, D. Abele, A. Schengen, C. Gerstein, J. H. Göbbert, A. Basermann, M. J. Kühn, M. Meyer-Hermann Agent-based modeling for realistic reproduction of human mobility and contact behavior to evaluate test and isolation strategies in epidemic infectious disease spread. Computers in Biology and Medicine 193, 110269 (2025). Preprint. Link
J. Bicker, R. Schmieding, M. Meyer-Hermann, M. J. Kühn Hybrid metapopulation agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insight on the individual scale: a contribution to green computing. Infectious Disease Modelling 10(2), 571 (2025). Link Preprint
2024
[Translate to English:] Antonia Bartz, Lena Böff, Manuela Harries, Madhav Chaturvedi, Nicole Rübsamen, Monika Strengert, Alex Dulovic, Nicole Schneiderhan-Marra, André Karch, Annette Aigner, Berit Lange, Veronika K Jaeger. Dynamics of contact behaviour by self-reported COVID-19 vaccination and infection status during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany—an analysis of two large population-based studies. (2024). Link.
Henrik Zunker, René Schmieding, David Kerkmann, Alain Schengen, Sophie Diexer, Rafael Mikolajczyk, Michael Meyer-Hermann, Martin J. Kühn. Novel travel time aware metapopulation models: A combination with multi-layer waning immunity to assess late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios. (2024). Link.
2023
P. Kaur Betz, J. Stoll , V. Grappendorf, J. Gilg, M. Zeumer , M. Klitz, L. Spataro, A. Klein, L. Rothenhäusler, H. Bohnacker, H. Krämer, M. Meyer-Hermann, S. Somogyi, A. Gerndt, M. J. Kühn. ESID: A Visual Analytics Tool to Epidemiological Emergencies. (2023). Link.
2022
W. Koslow, M. J. Kühn, S. Binder, M. Klitz, D. Abele, A. Basermann, M. Meyer-Hermann. Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant (2022). PLoS Comput Biol 18(5): e1010054. Link.
M. J. Kühn, D. Abele, S. Binder, K. Rack, M. Klitz, J. Kleinert, J. Gilg, L. Spataro, W. Koslow, M. Siggel, M. Meyer-Hermann, A. Basermann. Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants (2022). BMC Infectious Diseases 22:333. Link.
2021
M. J. Kühn, D. Abele, T. Mitra, W. Koslow, M. Abedi, K. Rack, M. Siggel, S. Khailaie, M. Klitz, S. Binder, Luca Spataro, J. Gilg, J. Kleinert, M. Häberle, L. Plötzke, C. D. Spinner, M. Stecher, X. X. Zhu, A. Basermann, M. Meyer-Hermann. Assessment of effective mitigation and prediction of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany using demographic information and spatial resolution. Mathematical Biosciences 339, 108648 (2021). Link.