Summertime time – and time to take a quick look back at the first half of the year. For Helmholtz, the past few months have been dominated by the process of scientific review. This was a major undertaking for everyone involved and an important opportunity to assess the current status of our research. In terms of research policy, important decisions have been made since the election in February. Helmholtz has landed four projects on the shortlist for prioritized large research infrastructures an several of our Research Centers are participating in the federally funded Startup Factories. Yesterday, the cabinet finally approved the BMFTR’s Hightech Agenda. The ministry's primary goal here is to promote key technologies. Our tip for this issue: Be sure to check out Markus Groth’s view on the economic consequences of climate change.

Enjoy reading!

For decades, psychology has aspired to explain the full complexity of human thought. Yet traditional models could either offer a sound explanation of how people think, or reliably predict how they would behave; achieving both has long seemed out of reach. But a team led by Dr. Marcel Binz and Dr. Eric Schulz, both from the Institute for Human-Centered AI at Helmholtz Munich, has now developed a model that combines both aspects.

The language model, called Centaur, was trained on more than ten million decisions from psychological experiments – and makes decisions in ways that closely resemble those used by real people. What makes Centaur unique is its ability to predict human behavior not only when it comes to familiar tasks, but also in entirely new situations it has never encountered before. It can identify common decision-making strategies, adapt flexibly to changing contexts – and even predict reaction times with surprising accuracy. Potential applications range from analyzing classic psychological experiments to simulating individual decision-making processes in clinical contexts – for example, combating depression or anxiety disorders. The model opens up new avenues in health research in particular – for example, by helping us understand how people with different psychological conditions make decisions. In addition, the dataset is soon to be expanded to include demographic and psychological characteristics.

Centaur bridges two previously separate domains: accessible theories and predictive power. It can reveal where classical models fall short – and provide insights into how they might be improved. This opens up new possibilities for research and real-world applications, from medicine to environmental science and the social sciences. Next, the researchers aim to take a closer look into what makes Centaur tick. The fact that this research is being pursued at Helmholtz Munich rather than in the development departments of major tech companies is no coincidence. “We combine AI research with psychological theory – and with a clear ethical commitment,” says the study’s lead author, Marcel Binz. “In a public research environment, we have the freedom to pursue fundamental cognitive questions that are often not the focus in industry.”

To the orginal publication

New Semiconductor for Future Computer Chips
Researchers at Forschungszentrum Jülich and the Leibniz Institute for Innovative Microelectronics (IHP) have developed a material that has never existed before: a stable alloy of carbon, silicon, germanium, and tin. The new compound, abbreviated as CSiGeSn, opens up exciting possibilities for applications at the interface of electronics, photonics, and quantum technology. Read more

Image: Sebastian Wiedling

Lucie Moeller is a biotechnologist and head of the Environmental Engineering and Biotechnology Group at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ in Leipzig.

The topics I work on with my team concern how humans can adapt to climate change. Specifically, we focus on water in cities. We look at how rainwater can be retained in cities for use during dry periods, and how it can be reused. We’re also interested in local water cycles. Separating material flows is very important in this context: in the future, toilet waste could be considered a raw material, and gray water could be reclaimed using simple, nature-based methods and used for irrigation. The most exciting thing for me is working with city officials to develop solutions together.

I would focus even more intensively on climate adaptation in Leipzig and work with relevant allies to develop the city into a role model for climate adaptation. There are several topics I could investigate with my team: Which rainwater management technologies make sense in Leipzig? How do these technologies need to be applied so that they really work, taking into account all local conditions? I would also like to incorporate elements of material flow separation into urban planning. An important first step would be to develop a site for processing the waste from dry toilets installed in public spaces.

There are several exciting personalities I would like to invite to dinner, for example Rüdiger Nehberg, whose book “Dem Mut ist keine Gefahr gewachsen” (No danger is a match for courage) I find very inspiring. I also greatly admire the Czech priest and sociologist Prof. Tomáš Halík and would love to talk to him about ethics in times of climate change: Where does a person’s freedom begin – and where does it end when it comes to existential questions?

Climate change is progressing, and the economic impacts are becoming increasingly apparent. Research in this area has expanded significantly in recent years and is characterized by a wide range of models and scenarios, as well as regional and sectoral perspectives. The results are clear: globally speaking, we can expect to see significant economic damage by mid-century. To mitigate the worst consequences, we must drastically reduce emissions now, while simultaneously implementing adaptation measures more vigorously. In Germany, the economic impacts are particularly evident in agriculture and forestry, fisheries, and critical infrastructure areas like transportation and energy. The effects on human health also have a significant economic component. The greatest risks come from flooding, droughts, and heat. These extreme weather events, which will occur even more frequently as a result of climate change, will limit economic performance. Measures that mitigate global warming and help us adapt to the impacts of climate change not only reduce damage but also have positive economic effects overall.

The scale of the problem can be seen from past extreme weather events. The 2021 flood disaster in the Ahr Valley caused at least €40.5 billion in damage. The heat and drought years of 2018 and 2019 cost at least €35 billion. In addition, 99 percent of the more than 30,000 extreme weather-related deaths since 2000 can be attributed to heat.

The problem: although our understanding of the economic aspects of climate change is growing, it’s still not sufficiently reflected in politics. Particularly at the local and regional level of counties and municipalities – in other words, exactly where climate policy has to be implemented directly – there is a significant need for support.

The urgent need for action is undisputed. The debate is currently fueled by the issue of “overshoot,” i.e., temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement. The associated economic and social consequences and their significance for local adaptation planning aren’t yet sufficiently understood. It should also be kept in mind that there are limits; after these points, no further adaptation is possible.

At the same time, we are currently in a climate policy implementation crisis – and one that affects more than just the application of scientific findings: economic and sustainability perspectives and solutions aren’t receiving the necessary political consideration, either. Proposals for overcoming these shortcomings are formulated in particular in the “Augsburg Call for Strengthening Social Science Climate Research” and the statement “Sustainability Research More Urgent Than Ever!”, issued by the German Committee for Sustainability Research (DKN). They identify new research priorities and urgent need for action, while also emphasizing the necessity of long-term reliable research funding.

In order to overcome the climate policy implementation crisis, science and politics must work together more effectively. More support is especially needed at the regional and local levels, to help develop and implement climate protection and adaptation measures that are scientifically sound, effective in the long term, and socially acceptable.

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Published by: Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres, Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Str.2, 10178 Berlin

Editors: Sebastian Grote, Franziska Roeder, Martin Trinkaus
Questions to the editors should be sent to monthly@helmholtz.de

Photo credit: Phil Dera (Editorial)

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