Subtopic SES: Scenarios for sustainable energy systems
The development of energy transition scenarios (SES: Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Systems) is a main task for Topic 3. The focus is on consistency of projections of technology potentials, economic impacts as well as climate protection and sustainability targets. Unlike in other scenarios, special consideration is given towards the social context.
The object of investigation is Germany in the EU. The scenarios shall contribute to strategy building for transformation processes. The aim is to demonstrate different energy futures in Germany contributing to the decarbonisation of energy systems and to emphasise their challenges and opportunities. The scenarios should follow the general recommendations of consistency, reproducibility and transparency. In particular, SES should
- reflect insights from the analysis of the technological options, mainly based on technology assessments, the energy systems approach (e.g. IKARUS) and environmentally oriented process-based approaches (e.g. MFA, LCA);
- take into consideration the requirements, prospects and options for a German sustainable energy policy in the context of a European position bearing in mind specific German positions to societal acceptance of strategies and technologies;
- consider (micro-)economic mechanisms to cope with innovation aspects and investment behaviour and the (macro-)economic interplay between households, business and the public sector and account for measures and incentives schemes necessary to induce the transformation of energy systems towards sustainability;
- be characterised by the same set of indicators, and on their valuation;
- be assessed reflecting societal decision-making (methods) to provide solutions to the problems involving conflicting and multiple objectives.
In order to gain maximum benefit for TIS the SES approach will use the knowledge and expertise of Topic 4 and 5 concerning renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency improvements. Reliability, transparency and reproducibility of the results is of main importance. To this respect, referring to all assumptions on technology developments, agent’s behaviour and modelling as well as to all subjective elements is an absolute must.
