Megacities: Laboratories for the future

Around two per cent of the earth’s land surface is currently covered by cities, yet about 50 per cent of the human population live in them, and this percentage is increasing daily. It’s not all bad news: in crowded cities, people can work more economically and use fewer resources to maintain the same living standards as in less densely populated areas. Problems arise when a city’s growth is unplanned and unchecked, leading to development of land at risk from natural disasters, traffic jams and air and water pollution, all of which greatly reduces quality of life and opportunities for the inhabitants.

The Helmholtz Initiative Risk Habitat Megacity was set up to tackle this problem. 40 scientists from five Helmholtz Centres (DLR, FZK, HZI, and GFZ, headed by the UFZ) are collaborating with Chilean research institutes to examine the dynamics and complexity of growth in the capital Santiago. The aim is to discover levers with which political leaders can control the development processes. Dr. Dirk Heinrichs, scientific coordinator of the UFZ, formulates the issue: “What is driving the rapid changes and how can these processes be controlled to increase living standards and reduce environmental pollution?” Or to put it another way, how can the opportunities provided by urbanisation be exploited and the disadvantages be avoided? Urbanisation is as far advanced in Latin America as in Europe – more than three quarters of the population live in cities. On the other hand, the transition to a service and knowledge-based society is not complete. For example, copper mining and fish farming are key factors in Chile’s economic strength. This also makes Santiago de Chile an ideal laboratory for the interdisciplinary approach of the Helmholtz initiative. Santiago is decades ahead of many megacities in developing countries, as Heinrichs explains, giving scientists the chance to see into the future. Santiago is considered a mature megacity; migration from rural areas has slowed, the birth rate is sinking and life expectancy has increased. Nevertheless, the city’s expansion has speeded up in recent years and the structure is splintering. Inner city areas are decaying while luxurious gated communities are being built on the periphery. Because the city is confined in its valley setting, these ‘barrios cerrados’ are often built in problematic locations, such as on previously forested mountain slopes, in water protection areas or earthquake zones. The Chilean and German researchers create models of the dangers of torrential rain run-off or landslides, supported by hydrological and seismic measurements. The settlements of poor migrants also lie on the periphery, so the social contrasts are starker than ever before. “The new proximity of the communities may bring opportunities for improving infrastructure and creating jobs, but also the risk of displacement,” as Heinrichs states. The social scientists use questionnaires and structured interviews to help estimate the social risks and opportunities.

Water and power supplies, waste water and waste disposal, air quality and mobility requirements of different population groups are also issues the Helmholtz Initiative is investigating. For example, the public transport system is insufficient and the increasing numbers of private vehicles is causing air pollution and affecting people’s health. One of the Helmholtz Initiative’s aims is to generate realistic scenarios to play out the various courses future development may take, giving a clear picture of how living space, energy or water resources will be used. Each topic of the initiative is tackled by a mixed team of German and Chilean researchers with at least one doctoral student in each group. Chilean partner universities offer workshops and seminars which are open not only to students but also to members of municipal government and political bodies. “Regional policy makers are some of the project’s most important partners. They want to know what levers exist to enable them to control the metropolitan area’s growth,” says Heinrichs. The right incentives could help ensure that development is made more sustainable and settlement in water protection areas and risk areas is avoided. Heinrichs explains that their studies increase awareness of the problems caused by poor development decisions for the quality of life and opportunities of future generations. By the end of 2010, some elements of a sustainable development strategy for Santiago should already be available. In subsequent stages of the megacity project from 2010 to 2013, the project partners aim to involve other Latin American cities in their research and to test whether the solutions and approaches they have found can be transferred to other cities.