Shipping Scenarios

CO₂ emissions from shipping are of the same order as published CO₂ estimates for aviation. This is documented in studies carried out by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt where Dr. Veronika Eyring heads a Helmholtz-University Young Investigators Group. The group works together with the University of Bremen to study the impact of shipping on atmospheric composition and climate in a research project called SeaKLIM (Einfluss von Schiffsemissionen auf Atmosphäre und Klima). Their results show that ship engines emitted around 800m tonnes of CO₂ or 2.7 per cent of all anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in 2000; the proportion of nitrogen oxides (NOx) lies at 15 per cent and of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) at 8 per cent. In addition, the annual fuel consumption of international shipping increased by a factor of 4.3 to meanwhile around 280m tonnes in the period from 1950 to 2000. The research group demonstrated in various scenarios that the CO₂ and SO₂ emissions from shipping could double over today's rate by 2050, but that the situation could also be much improved by taking appropriate measures and introducing effective strategies. Yet, if no action is taken, the nitrogen dioxide emissions could exceed the present-day levels from worldwide road traffic by 2050.