Electromobility in Germany
A million electric vehicles are to drive on German roads by 2020. The federal government decided on this ambitious goal in its National Development Plan Electromobility. But how will completely electrically powered vehicles and plug-in hybrids with additional combustion motor actually be used? Will electric vehicles change our notion of mobility or are they doomed to suffer a niche existence at best?
Markus Mehlin, Head of the department Passenger Transport at the DLR Institute of Transport Research in Berlin, investigates these questions. In collaboration with E.ON Energie and other partners, his team works on a project on electromobility, in the context of which the Volkswagen AG will bring to the road 30 plug-in hybrids on the basis of the Golf VI model as of autumn 2010. The cars will be driven by people with very diverse demands as regards their personal mobility. With fully loaded batteries, commuters, families with small children or medication delivery services can then drive 50 to 80 kilometres electrically and, if necessary, further distances using diesel or petrol. Detailed driver’s logs provide Mehlin and his colleagues with the data for a system analysis revealing the probable potential of usage of the electric vehicles.
“There will be no limitation as regards usage of the vehicles in our project”, stresses Mehlin. This differentiates the project also from already launched fleet tests with electric vehicles. For instance, the test drivers will not have to make allowances as regards load or distance travelled compared to conventional vehicles with combustion engines. The DLR researchers focus in particular on inner city and suburban traffic to the city fringes, that is, distances for which the limited range of electric engines is sufficient. According to the study “Mobility in Germany 2002”, around 85 percent of distances covered in German everyday usage do not exceed 70 kilometres. “With our study we will be able to demonstrate for which user groups electric vehicles can be suitable and for which they are not”, says Mehlin.
Not only driving behaviour and downtimes will enter into the DLR analysis of the fleet test. Mehlin expects to obtain new insights also as regards the economy of electric drive units. One aspect is the higher acquisition price of an electric vehicle compared to the same vehicle with conventional drive unit. Yet this is counterbalanced by lower operating costs. With efficiency degrees of up to 80 percent, the electric engines on the gear hubs can convert energy into movement very efficiently The batteries can be charged over night at the socket in the garage at home at a very competitive low cost. According to Mehlin, the surplus cost for a hybrid vehicle could quickly be compensated for by the lower costs for driving energy depending on contingent conditions.
Lower operating costs, less emissions and noise in inner cities: these would be the essential advantages. And if the electricity for electric vehicles is produced not by fossil fuel power stations but comes from renewable sources of energy, the CO2 balance would also be positive. Yet in spite of these advantages, Mehlin does not intend to neglect critical arguments regarding electromobility. “More electric vehicles do not solve a single parking or traffic jam problem”, says the DLR traffic researcher. The cheap “fuelling up” at the power socket could even lead to more traffic. For electric drive units make driving more attractive compared to other means of transport. Therefore, Mehlin cannot rule out the possibility that the fleet test could even result in negative effects regarding public transport or the bicycle, since electric vehicles with their currently short range enter into direct competition with these.
Even though the fleet test supported by the DLR cannot substitute a comprehensive and representative traffic analysis, it will provide important clues as regards the future of electromobility on German roads. It can be expected that all too optimistic prognoses will be augmented by a more realistic analysis of usage. “At least in the medium term, I see the purely electric vehicle as a niche vehicle only, but with the hybrid variants the count of one million could be reached by 2020”, prognosticates Mehlin.
